Macro Market Stress Monitor

Yield Curve Shape — informational, not wave-gating

3M/2Y/10Y/30Y yields, three dates overlaid (6 months ago, 3 months ago, today) — a steepening, flattening, or inversion shows up as a shape change here, not something you'd have to scan across table columns to notice. Fed Funds, the dollar index, gold, and federal debt/GDP are tracked individually above and in the Fiscal Dominance Regime Checklist below, rather than folded into this chart.

Fiscal Dominance Regime Checklist — informational, not wave-gating

4 real-data checks for whether Fed policy is actually constrained by the debt burden — not just whether debt or rates happen to be high (that's the level tracked above). None of these is a verdict on its own; this is a structural, slow-moving read (reassess roughly quarterly, matching 3 of the 4 series' own cadence), not a daily flag. See the "Fiscal Dominance Regime Checklist" section of the rules doc for the full methodology.

Sector Capital Rotation — informational, not wave-gating

11 Select Sector SPDRs + SPY + GLD, from State Street's own free NAV-history data. Flow is a real creation/redemption signal (share-count change × NAV) — not a price proxy — but it's ETF-vehicle-level, not a complete picture of money entering/leaving the underlying sector; investors can get the same exposure through other ETFs. NAV return is price-only, not total return.

Crash Probability — History

Discretionary LLM estimate over time — not a calibrated statistical forecast.